empty
14.03.2025 03:38 AM
Trading Recommendations and Analysis for GBP/USD on March 14: The Pound Sterling Isn't Even Trying

GBP/USD 5-Minute Analysis

This image is no longer relevant

The GBP/USD currency pair experienced a slight pullback on Thursday but did not manage to consolidate below the critical line. The Kijun-sen line is situated very close to the current price. There were no macroeconomic reports released in the UK on Thursday, and while there was some U.S. data, any market reaction was minimal, barely noticeable even on the five-minute timeframe. Meanwhile, Donald Trump continues to make threats against the European Union and Canada; however, the market is becoming increasingly indifferent to his statements. If the forex market was uncertain before, it is even more tumultuous now, raising questions about whether it has finished responding to Trump's sanctions and tariffs or if further developments are expected.

From a technical standpoint, the situation remains unclear. There is no discernible trend line or channel. A consolidation below the critical level could trigger a small decline, but breaking below 1.2863 would require considerable effort. Interestingly, aside from Trump's statements, the British pound lacks strong reasons to appreciate against the U.S. dollar. This suggests that the current upward trend could abruptly end, leading to a new decline. The downward trends on both the daily and monthly timeframes remain unchanged.

On the five-minute timeframe, there was only one trading signal on Thursday. At the beginning of the U.S. session, the price bounced off the Kijun-sen line and moved up by 30 pips. Although it did not reach the nearest target, traders could have secured a profit of 10-15 pips if they chose to close their positions manually in the evening.

COT Report

This image is no longer relevant

COT reports for the British pound indicate that the sentiment among commercial traders has been fluctuating in recent years. The red and blue lines, representing the net positions of commercial and non-commercial traders, frequently intersect and typically hover around the zero line. Currently, these lines are close to each other, indicating a roughly equal number of buy and sell positions.

On the weekly timeframe, the price initially broke the 1.3154 level before dropping to the trend line, which it subsequently broke through. This break suggests that the pound's decline is likely to continue. However, there was also a bounce from the second-to-last local low on the weekly chart, which could imply a flat market.

According to the latest COT report on the British pound, the "Non-commercial" group opened 7,800 buy contracts and closed 6,300 sell contracts. Consequently, the net position of non-commercial traders increased by 14,100 contracts over the week, which does not significantly favor the pound.

The fundamental backdrop still offers no solid reasons for long-term investments in the British pound, and the currency faces a real possibility of continuing its global downtrend. Although the pound has recently experienced a notable increase, the underlying cause appears to be related to Donald Trump's policies.

GBP/USD 1-Hour Analysis

This image is no longer relevant

On the hourly timeframe, GBP/USD remains in an uptrend. This may not be the last trend shift within the ongoing upward correction on the daily timeframe, but this correction has long been due to end. We still don't see any fundamental reasons for the pound to rise long-term. Currently, the only thing supporting the pound is Donald Trump, who continues imposing sanctions and tariffs on almost everyone except the UK. All other market factors are being ignored.

For March 14, the key levels to watch are 1.2237-1.2255, 1.2331-1.2349, 1.2429-1.2445, 1.2511, 1.2605-1.2620, 1.2691-1.2701, 1.2796-1.2816, 1.2863, 1.2981-1.2987, 1.3050. The Senkou Span B (1.2749) and Kijun-sen (1.2922) lines may also act as signal points. The Stop Loss should be set at breakeven once the price moves 20 pips in the right direction. The Ichimoku indicator lines may shift during the day, so traders should consider this when identifying signals.

The UK will release reports on monthly GDP and industrial production on Friday. The industrial production report is even more important than GDP in this case. A monthly GDP report is not the same as a quarterly one, so it holds little significance. In the U.S., the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index will be released, but it is also not a highly influential report.

Illustration Explanations:

  • Support and Resistance Levels (thick red lines): Thick red lines indicate where movement may come to an end. Please note that these lines are not sources of trading signals.
  • Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B Lines: Ichimoku indicator lines transferred from the 4-hour timeframe to the hourly timeframe. These are strong lines.
  • Extreme Levels (thin red lines): Thin red lines where the price has previously bounced. These serve as sources of trading signals.
  • Yellow Lines: Trendlines, trend channels, or any other technical patterns.
  • Indicator 1 on COT Charts: Represents the net position size for each category of traders.
Paolo Greco,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2025
Select timeframe
5
min
15
min
30
min
1
hour
4
hours
1
day
1
week
Earn on cryptocurrency rate changes with InstaForex
Download MetaTrader 4 and open your first trade
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    JOIN CONTEST

Recommended Stories

How to Trade the GBP/USD Pair on March 19? Simple Tips and Trade Analysis for Beginners

Analysis of Tuesday's Trades 1H Chart of GBP/USD On Tuesday, the GBP/USD pair closely mirrored the movements of the EUR/USD pair. The British pound often follows the euro

Paolo Greco 06:44 2025-03-19 UTC+2

How to Trade the EUR/USD Pair on March 19? Simple Tips and Trade Analysis for Beginners

Analysis of Tuesday's Trades 1H Chart of EUR/USD On Tuesday, the EUR/USD currency pair showed an inclination to rise again. A closer examination of intraday movements reveals that the pair

Paolo Greco 06:44 2025-03-19 UTC+2

Trading Recommendations and Analysis for GBP/USD on March 19: Trump Is More Important Than the Fed and BoE

The GBP/USD currency pair again showed an upward movement on Tuesday despite having no fundamental reasons. There were no significant events or reports in the UK, and in the second

Paolo Greco 02:34 2025-03-19 UTC+2

Trading Recommendations and Analysis for EUR/USD on March 19: Slow but Steady Rise Ahead of the Fed Meeting

The EUR/USD currency pair continued to trade higher on Tuesday but remained within a limited range, which can be considered a sideways channel. There are currently two channels: sideways

Paolo Greco 02:34 2025-03-19 UTC+2

GBP/USD: Trading Plan for the U.S. Session on March 18th (Analysis of Morning Trades)

In my morning forecast, I focused on the 1.2994 level and planned to make market entry decisions based on it. Let's look at the 5-minute chart and analyze what happened

Miroslaw Bawulski 18:30 2025-03-18 UTC+2

EUR/USD: Trading Plan for the U.S. Session on March 18th (Analysis of Morning Trades)

In my morning forecast, I focused on the 1.0904 level and planned to make market entry decisions based on it. Let's look at the 5-minute chart and analyze what happened

Miroslaw Bawulski 18:25 2025-03-18 UTC+2

How to Trade the GBP/USD Pair on March 18? Simple Tips and Trade Analysis for Beginners

Analysis of Monday's Trades 1H Chart of GBP/USD On Monday, the GBP/USD pair also attempted to resume its upward movement and even broke through the latest local high within

Paolo Greco 06:08 2025-03-18 UTC+2

How to Trade the EUR/USD Pair on March 18? Simple Tips and Trade Analysis for Beginners

Analysis of Monday's Trades 1H Chart of EUR/USD On Monday, the EUR/USD currency pair resumed its upward movement but remained within a sideways channel between the levels of 1.0804

Paolo Greco 06:08 2025-03-18 UTC+2

Trading Recommendations and Analysis for GBP/USD on March 18: The British Pound is Flying North Again

On Monday, the GBP/USD currency pair again showed an upward movement despite having no reason. The market continues to buy the British pound purely out of inertia, much like Bitcoin

Paolo Greco 02:35 2025-03-18 UTC+2

Trading Recommendations and Analysis for EUR/USD on March 18: A New Increase, But Within Reasonable Limits

The EUR/USD currency pair continued to trade higher on Monday but within a confined range that can be considered a sideways channel. Traders again ignored all news supporting the U.S

Paolo Greco 02:35 2025-03-18 UTC+2
Can't speak right now?
Ask your question in the chat.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.