empty
InstaForex Loprais Team - Official participant of the Dakar rally
InstaForex Loprais Team - Official participant of the Dakar rally
This section is designed for those who are just starting their trading journey. InstaForex educational and analytical materials will meet your training needs. Our experts' recommendations will make your first steps to trading success simple and clear.
Start as Beginner
How to start trading
Useful information
Training and recordings
InstaForex innovative services are an essential element of productive investment. We strive to provide our clients with advanced technical capabilities and make their trading routine comfortable as we are recognized as the best broker in this regard.
Become Investor
PAMM System
ForexCopy System
Passive investments
Partnership with InstaForex is beneficial and top-tier. Join our affiliate programs and enjoy bonuses, partner rewards, and the possibility to travel with the team of the world-renowned brand.
Become Partner
Main Page
Partner Area
Advantages for Affiliates
Registration
This section contains the most lucrative offers from InstaForex. Receive bonuses when topping up an account, compete with other traders, and get real prizes even when trading in a demo account.
All Promo Campaigns
Bonuses
Contests
Events
Holidays with InstaForex are not only pleasant but also useful. We offer a one-stop portal, numerous forums, and corporate blogs, where traders can exchange experiences and become successfully integrated into the Forex community.
Full details
Forums
We are in social networks
Forex humour
Forex Portal
InstaForex is an international brand created in 2007. The company provides services for online FX trading and is recognized as one of the world's leading brokers. We have won the trust of more than 7,000,000 retail traders, who have already appreciated our reliability and focus on innovations.
Learn More
History
Why Choose Us
InstaSport
Regulation
Company News
Awards
InstaForex Stars
InstaForex Offline
Headquarters
Key documents
Social Responsibility
07.12.2022 10:01 AM
Will the dollar still be at war? USD/JPY forecast for 2023
Open trading account Open demo account

This image is no longer relevant

The USD/JPY pair plummeted in November, which made many question its bullish potential. However, the dollar's recent growth convinces investors otherwise. So what to expect from the major?

The dollar is winning so far

The greenback rose 0.3% against its major peers on Wednesday night. The dollar was supported by rising concerns about the global recession.

The day before, three leading U.S. banks - J.P. Morgan, Goldman Sachs and The Bank of America - said they expect a slowdown in global economic growth next year, as rising inflation is threatening consumer demand.

The pessimistic outlook reinforced the anti-risk sentiment that prevailed for the third consecutive session. The MSCI All-Country World Index, which tracks stock market performance in 48 countries, fell 1.26%, down from a three-month high last week.

The loss of appetite for equities and increased demand for the dollar was also triggered by strong US macrodata. Recall that earlier this week the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) said that economic activity in the services sector grew from 54.4 to 56.5 in November.

The data followed Friday's report from the U.S. labor market, which also pleased dollar bulls. The nation's NonFarm Payroll employment rose more than forecast last month.

The portion of optimistic data greatly strengthened the market's hawkish expectations for further monetary policy by the Federal Reserve.

Currently, most traders expect the U.S. central bank to raise the rate by 50 bps next week. The probability of an increase by 75 bps is only 5%.

However, talk of a higher peak in U.S. interest rates has returned to the market. Many investors believe the rate could reach 5.25% in 2023, whereas now it is in the 3.75-4% range.

The hope that the Fed will continue to raise rates next year and keep them high for a long time acts as a very powerful trigger for the dollar at this point. This factor particularly helps the greenback against the yen.

After USD/JPY plummeted to a 3-month low of 133.64 last week, it has now gained 3% and has managed to stay above 137.

This image is no longer relevant

There aren't many new factors that can strongly influence the asset's dynamics now. In the coming days, investors will focus on two events: the US consumer price index for November and next week's Fed meeting.

If investors see more robust inflation and hear hints of a higher peak in U.S. interest rates from U.S. officials, it will likely trigger a new wave of growth in the USD/JPY pair.

What's in store for the USD/JPY next year?

In November, the U.S. currency posted its worst monthly performance in 14 years against the yen. It fell by more than 7% due to fears that the US central bank is going to slow the pace of rate hikes.

However, most currency strategists, recently surveyed by Reuters, believe that in the next few months, USD/JPY will be able to hold its annual growth, which amounted to 20%.

The growing threat of recession in the U.S. and other countries should provide support to the dollar. In the backdrop of risk aversion, the greenback will once again feel a surge of strength, which will help it recover its recent losses on all fronts, even against the yen.

"For now, the forces that have supported the USD this year remain valid, despite the recent correction lower. Other currencies do not look as attractive yet," said Athanasios Vamvakidis, head of G10 FX strategy at Bank of America.

In the BofA baseline, the U.S. dollar will remain strong early next year and will only start a more sustained downward path after the Fed pauses.

Despite the dollar's recent pullback, major currencies are not expected to recoup their 2022 losses against the USD until at least late 2023, the survey showed.

Analysts estimate that the Japanese yen, down nearly 20% for the year and currently trading around 136.50 per dollar, was expected to change hands around 139.17, 136.17 and 132.67 per dollar over the next three, six and 12 months respectively.

Аlena Ivannitskaya,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2025
Select timeframe
5
min
15
min
30
min
1
hour
4
hours
1
day
1
week
Earn on cryptocurrency rate changes with InstaForex
Download MetaTrader 4 and open your first trade
All Analytics
Wave analysis
EUR/USD Analysis on April 21, 2025 The wave structure on the 4-hour chart for EUR/USD has transformed into a bullish formation. I believe there's little doubt that this transformation occurred solely due to the new U.S
Chin Zhao
19:46 2025-04-21 +02:00
1375
Wave analysis
GBP/USD Analysis on April 21, 2025 The wave structure for GBP/USD has also transformed into a bullish, impulsive formation—"thanks" to Donald Trump. The wave picture is nearly identical to that of EUR/USD. Up until February
Chin Zhao
19:44 2025-04-21 +02:00
1315
Breaking Forecast Trading Plan Cryptocurrencies USD/RUB Russian Economy Video Analysis
Trading Instruments
EURUSD GBPUSD USDCHF USDCAD USDJPY AUDUSD EURGBP EURJPY NZDUSD EURNZD Silver Gold #CL #USDX COVID-19 Bitcoin
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    JOIN CONTEST

Recommended Stories

Trump, Fed, and gold at $3,000? Markets respond to alarming signals

Investors are worried about the Fed's independence under Trump. US assets are falling, and the dollar is at a three-year low against the euro. Safe-haven currencies like
11:46 2025-04-21 UTC+2

US Market News Digest for April 21

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq slipped once again after Donald Trump lashed out at the Federal Reserve. His comments called the independence of the central bank into question, amplifying inflation
Ekaterina Kiseleva 11:41 2025-04-21 UTC+2

Trump, Fed, $3,000 Gold? Markets React to Red Flags

Investors Worried About Trump Fed Independence US Assets Fall, Dollar Hits Three-Year Low Against Euro Safe-Haven Yen, Swiss Franc Rise Gold Hits New Record High South Korea Stock Market
Thomas Frank 10:18 2025-04-21 UTC+2

US Market News Digest for April 18

Donald Trump ratcheted up his criticism against Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, once again calling for an immediate interest rate cut. This renewed political pressure adds to the tensions surrounding
Ekaterina Kiseleva 12:09 2025-04-18 UTC+2

When Giants Fall: How Alphabet and UnitedHealth Decisions Hurt the Market

Trading on U.S. stock markets ended in disarray on Thursday, with positive news from tech giants and pharma companies colliding with interest rate concerns. Market participants wavered between hopes
Thomas Frank 11:56 2025-04-18 UTC+2

Powell in danger? Can Trump fire Fed Chair and what does that mean for markets?

Donald Trump has once again set his sights on the Federal Reserve, accusing its chairman Jerome Powell of failing in monetary policy and threatening to fire him. But what lies
Аlena Ivannitskaya 08:43 2025-04-18 UTC+2

US Market News Digest for April 17

Jerome Powell's latest remarks triggered a sharp sell-off in US equities. Both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq posted notable losses after the Fed chairman said that interest rates
Ekaterina Kiseleva 11:21 2025-04-17 UTC+2

When it all went wrong: Nvidia under pressure, stocks fall, Powell waits for clarity

Powell says economy slowing in Q1, may wait for more clarity European stocks slip ahead of ECB policy decision Nvidia warns of blame over US chip export restrictions to China
Thomas Frank 10:27 2025-04-17 UTC+2

US stock market in red zone: Dow Jones – 0.4%, Nasdaq – 0.1%. Upbeat corporate reports do not save Wall Street

The US stock market closed Tuesday with minor losses, as uncertainty over trade duties continued to weigh on investor sentiment. Consumer and healthcare stocks were particularly affected, though strong earnings
11:38 2025-04-16 UTC+2

US Market News Digest for April 16

Wall Street ended the session in the red. Shares of giants Boeing and Johnson & Johnson took the biggest hit as uncertainty around tariff policy continues to weigh on investor
Ekaterina Kiseleva 11:12 2025-04-16 UTC+2

Top analytics

Relevance up to 12:00 UTC--4
EUR/USD Analysis on April 21, 2025
19:46 2025-04-21
Wave analysis
Relevance up to 09:00 UTC--4
EURUSD: Simple Trading Tips for Beginner Traders on April 21st (U.S. Session)
19:29 2025-04-21
Forecast
Relevance up to 09:00 UTC--4
GBPUSD: Simple Trading Tips for Beginner Traders on April 21st (U.S. Session)
19:39 2025-04-21
Forecast
Relevance up to 09:00 UTC--4
GBP/USD Analysis on April 21, 2025
19:44 2025-04-21
Wave analysis
Relevance up to 09:00 UTC--4
USD/JPY: Simple Trading Tips for Beginner Traders on April 21st (U.S. Session)
19:41 2025-04-21
Forecast
Can't speak right now?
Ask your question in the chat.
Widget callback
Callback widget
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.