Forex Analysis & Reviews: 02.02.2021 - Oil prices continue to rise

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02.02.2021 11:17 AM

Oil prices continue to rise

Crude oil prices rose on Tuesday. The prices of major brands climbed due to the positive prospects for a recovery in extremely limited demand. According to representatives of the Saudi Arabian oil sector, demand will still not be able to quickly return to its previous indicators, since there is still a lot of external pressure. In the best case, demand can return to normal only by the end of this year, provided that there are no serious problems. Nevertheless, there is enough positive. In particular, many analysts believe that the greatest difficulties of the epidemiological situation in the world are already behind, which means that the coronavirus will gradually begin to recede, which will also significantly improve the forecast for demand for crude oil.

The black gold market receives additional support from the weakening of the US dollar. A weak dollar makes commodities even more attractive to investors. On Tuesday, the dollar index sank 0.1% in relation to the main currencies of the world, although until that moment it had reached its minimum indicators.

Now there is a very sharp reversal in the black gold market: the mood of the participants showed an almost U-shaped change. The reason for such a rapid increase in positive is the hope for the earliest possible stabilization of the coronavirus pandemic. Mass vaccination is gradually overcoming all difficulties and is gaining momentum, which allows us to say that in just a couple of months everything can change for the better. This is what the oil market participants are counting on. At the moment when it is possible to achieve a steady decrease in the incidence rate, the business of black gold will also go uphill.

The oil market is also supported by OPEC. Several countries that have ratified the agreement on voluntary production cuts have announced that they intend to further reduce hydrocarbon production in the second month of this year. Saudi Arabia was among them. In general, the reduction should amount to nearly 1.5 million barrels per day, which is already 1.5% of the total level of global oil demand.

Moreover, according to preliminary statistics, the planned reduction in production in January this year was also fulfilled by 99% by those states that are included in the agreement. However, so far this is only a preliminary calculation, which will be specified. Meanwhile, the very fact that the transaction was completed in a larger volume than was observed during the last year is very pleasing to market participants, who receive an additional impetus to intensify their work.

The price of futures contracts for Brent crude oil for delivery in April on the trading floor in London rose 0.98% or $0.55, to $56.9 per barrel. Monday trading also ended with an increase in the contracts by 2.4% or $1.31, which sent the price to $56.35 per barrel.

The price of futures contracts for WTI crude oil for delivery in March on the electronic trading floor in New York added 1.03% or $0.55, to $54.1 per barrel. Monday's trading closed in the green zone with a significant rise of 2.6% or $1.35, which sent the final price to $53.55 per barrel.

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*A análise de mercado aqui postada destina-se a aumentar o seu conhecimento, mas não dar instruções para fazer uma negociação.